A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
